A day to remember !

No P/L today, I'll post it at the end of the week as usual but today I wanted to write a little bit about what happened today so that it gets archived.

Last night, saw Milan at 2.32 and thought it could be a good price compared to what bookmakers were offering ( Bwin 1.85, Sportingbet 2.00 and Paddypower 1.90 ) so I backed at 2.32 in the hope of laying it in the 2.20s. Soon after I found myself in doubt of my position because there was an uptrend forming but I decided to go to bed and wait for a reversal because 2.32 seemed a bit high for me. See my entry point in the picture below ( blue dot ).

Today woke up early and saw the chart you can see in the picture above. The price was at 2.34. Thought exiting the trade with a small loss but no... I was in hope of a profit so I let it stay for a few more hours. I set up a mental stop loss at 2.38. At the end of the morning the price was above 2.40 which seemed quite impossible for me when I backed last night and my mental stop loss was of no help. Obviously I got out immediately at 2.48 and some at 2.50 ( best prices I could get at the time to get out immediately ). Immediately after I left the price came down again and was under 2.30 before the match went underway. So disappointing.

I'm still a newbie at doing technical analysis but from my point of view that volume peak in combination with the price touching the uptrend line for the 3rd time was a strong signal that the price was about to be pushed up a bit more. Honestly, I've seen it but ignored it. Why ? First, I was convinced 2.32 was high for AC Milan for the game in question. Second, I guess I was influenced by the weight of money ( it was in my favor ). From what I've seen, the weight of money is completely useless in 99% of the cases but I still feel I'm influenced by it. It would be good to have an option for not showing it.

At the end I was left with a -16.23€ redbook. It's within my maximum allowed loss defined by my money management model so that's not very problematic but the way I traded left me very very disappointed.

Then came a good trade at the half-time of Real Madrid vs. Mallorca. Had a greenbook of 2.01€ when failed to see that the match was about to get underway, people were closing positions and I got caught on a small price reversal, the game went underway and I had no option but to leave at the best price available which turned my greenbook into a redbook of -0.24€. Guess I'm going to subscribe to a new sports channel so I can watch more games on TV. It would have been of a great help in this case.

Last match I traded today was Valencia vs. Betis. Got a good price after valencia scored 2-0 but I didn't greenup because I thought about let it run for one more tick. What happened ? Betis scored and I was forced to lay at a higher price reducing my profits to 50%. Accepting the profit is an old rule that I've been applying quite often and that makes me happy when I'm able to apply this basic ( but very important ) rules but in this match I completely failed to apply it. I don't have any doubt that the previous trades were the main reason. As a poker player would say, "I was on tilt".

Some people would say it's a day to forget but I prefer to think it's a day to remember. Hope I never forget the mistakes I made today so I can avoid them tomorrow.

You offered, I accepted it !

Profit/Loss : 164.87€
Total Profit/Loss : 394.53€
Current Bank : 1129.75€

First of all, let me clarify the -0.01€ loss I talked about in the last post. I received a call from Betfair clarifying the situation. What happened was that my back bet was matched by someone on a different currency which means that there were some conversions involved and therefore these discrepancies are very likely to happen. This didn't cross my mind at the time but thanks to Betfair for the explanation. In fact, this happened again during this weekend, 1 cent is 1 cent, so why bother ? Let's move on.

On Thursday I was the lucky guy that got 2.00 and 2.50 offered on the draw when Arsenal equalized 1-1 at the 79th minute. Obviously I accepted and backed 400€, some at 2.50 and the rest at 2.00, some seconds later I laid at 1.54 and made a greenbook of 121.74€. I'm very sorry for the guy that made the mistake but this game is tough and we have to take every chance we can.

The weekend didn't start very well, horrible Saturday making less than 10€ and horrible start of Sunday losing -6.75€ on the horses. I made a stupid mistake of entering the market with too much money breaking my money management model ( more on this on a future post ) but honestly I didn't notice it until I got out of the market but at least I didn't let the loss run and was able to get out quickly. I must confess that I was missing the horses so this weekend I decided to go there and try to make a few € if I could but things started badly and I had to leave with a loss. Needless to say that I forgot the horses and moved on to some football but I'll get back at the horses some time soon, I want to make the horses my main trading sport. Is it necessary to explain why ?

Sunday's afternoon was quite interesting but ended much better than it started making more than 30€ is just two matches. Having patience is a great advantage, is it not ? Check out the P/L screenshot.

I guess I already talked about this before but anyway, I'll soon be posting about my money management model and I'll also talk a bit about my future goals. I know I'm lazy so this may take a couple of weeks... :)

Winning Streak is over !

Profit/Loss : 35.07€
Total Profit/Loss : 229.66€
Current Bank : 964.88€

Unfortunately my winning streak since 8th of December is gone thanks to a FA Cup match but only lost -0.11€ so not much of a problem. I was 1 tick up but tried to get one more and then the second half was about to get underway and I had to leave losing a ridiculous sum of -0.11€. I'd be less happier if I had let the trade go inplay but I didn't! Discipline!!!

The week was quite interesting, made a nice profit but the weekend was poor. No matches at Italy and Germany yet and FA Cup in England. I hate cup matches I must say, but in the end a profit is a profit.

For those that don't know how these trades are made, here's how. These trades are done during the half-time when no goals can be scored. I always try to get 1 or 2 ticks, sometimes it's possible to extract 3 or even 4 but that's all. I had enough of inplay trading that's why I decided to follow this low-risk approach which is giving me very good results in terms of strike rate. The profit is low but I'm happy this way. If I can get 800€/month in the future that will be sufficient to make me happy and that's going to happen very soon if my bank keeps growing like it is now. Patience my friend, patience!

In the following picture you can also see a loss of -0.01€ on Dep. Corunha vs. Atl. Madrid which surprised me quite a lot. I backed and layed 400€ @ 1.01 so I should have no profit/loss. I've already contacted betfair because I'd like to know how this was calculated. Let's wait for an answer.

And that's the way the cookie crambles! Ah ah ah!

Quick update

Profit/Loss : 18.58€
Total Profit/Loss : 194.59€
Current Bank : 929.81€

Here's last week result. A poor week in terms of the number of football matches available to trade on but I can't complain much because all were green once again.

December's P/L was muched better than November's despite having had a stupid weekend in the beginning of the month where I managed to lose around 10€ ( see previous posts ).

As an aside note, I don't have a red trade since 8th of December. Let's see for how long I'll be able to keep this winning streak going.

I'll soon post some thoughts about my money management and about my new goals for this new year. All I can tell for now is that I'm going to raise the bar in terms of the expected profit per month but also trying to keep this low-risk approach. I'll talk more about this soon so I can clarify some ideas in my head.

Happy new year!

Steady growth

Profit/Loss : 40.76€
Total Profit/Loss : 176.01€
Current Bank : 911.23€

Another weekend, another healthy profit. It's been normal to have a profit of around 40€ per week, that's what happened once again, mostly during the weekend of course. Tried some horse racing but without success and left without losing/winning which isn't bad at all. I don't have the right tools to trade on the horses so I'll try to stay away from those markets while I don't get those tools. Football during the half-time and some inplay seems to be the best markets for me to trade at the moment despite the low profits.

All trades were green once again. This tells me that I'm not making too many mistakes which keeps me happy. However, I shall not trick myself into thinking that I haven't done any mistake, because I did some.

The 900€ barrier is behind me and I'm heading to the 4 digits again at a decent pace. Hope to achieve it during the first month of the new year.

Please note that I've changed the date of the last post because it simply wasn't right. I've started to write it days before publishing it and it came out with the starting date instead of the publishing date.

Mixed Feelings

Profit/Loss : 37.20€
Total Profit/Loss : 135.25€
Current Bank : 870.47€

First of all, sorry for taking so long for an update. That's how I am, lazy!

Let me separate this post in two different parts, last weekend and this weekend. Last weekend I took a loss of -8.86€. I made so many mistakes that I should have been wiped out. It all started on friday night with an NBA match between the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons. I always seemed to be on the wrong side and taking constant losses and getting pissed off about it. I had a total accumulated loss on the Pistons of around -60€ and 0€ on the Bulls. The Bulls were in front near the end of the match but were leading by just 4 or 5 points. I told myself that I couldn't afford a loss of -60€ so I took a hard decision of dividing the loss and taking a -16€ guaranteed loss. The Bulls did indeed win the game, very hard to swallow. This trading was in the back of my mind the entire weekend.

Saturday morning trading the horses I decided to buy a horse at 3.40 because I thought it would drift. It was the favourite in the race in question and there was nothing that could tell me that that horse was indeed a favourite for that race so that was why I decided to lay him. Immediately I saw him steaming to 2.80s. Obviously, I should have closed my position much earlier but I did not, I was in love with my position. Exited losing -18.94€.

During the afternoon I've entered in a self-destroying mode. I was watching the Manchester United vs. Derby County game on TV and was surprised to see Derby not conceding a goal for more than 30 minutes so I decided to do some trades on the under/over 3,5 goals market. Guess what happened, Man Utd scored two goals in 5 minutes while I had a position opened. I was very lucky to leave with a -44.84€ loss.

The rest of the weekend I was trading on a mood that is completely unacceptable. I was putting huge chunks ( almost the whole bank ) in some very very risky situations, I felt like I wanted to blow my whole bank in a few seconds, very weird feelings. I don't know how I managed to lose just -8.86€.

I'll have to work hard to get my mind right for trading. If I don't, I'll be wiped out in a couple of months because this is indeed a very tough game.

Ok, let's to move on to this weekend. In constrast with last weekend, this one I haven't missed a single trade, all green. That's something that I can't understand, I'm capable of the best and of the worst.

There's nothing special with these trades. It's the usual thing. A profit of 46.06€. It should be like this every day. :)

Hope you don't make the mistakes I made.

Tough days behind me

Profit/Loss : 34.05€
Total Profit/Loss : 98.05€
Current Bank : 833.27€

Been very busy these days due to professional reasons and haven't had the mind sharp enough to do as many tradings as I'd have wanted but since last update I managed to make a somewhat nice profit.

Lost -5.00€ today on AC Milan vs. Celtic match and ended the day with that loss. I've decided to not trade anymore today because I felt that I wasn't with the required mindset. When this happens it's better to stay away from these markets than to have a huge loss. I believe you agree with me.

It's amazing to notice how I've been cutting my profits lately. I'm picking very small profits because I'm scared of taking a considerable loss so I sneak in and out of the markets as quickly as possible. I get very satisfied to get a tick and this is starting to frustrate me, honestly. There have been several greenbooks that could have been 10x more had I stood by my decisions when I've entered the market. The problem is, if I lose this feeling of fear for a loss and then go and take a considerable loss right on the first attempt, this feeling will double its magnitude and that wouldn't be good. Now I'm experiencing how hard trading is mentally. I think I just have to choose the perfect timing/moment to break this mental barrier. I'll overcome it someway!!

November was a terrible month for me because of a single huge loss of -819.64€ in a football match, therefore, it was impossible to end the month on a green position. Here's the screenshot from my November's P&L.

The 800€ barrier was broken and is now way behind me.

Cheers!