Scary

Profit/Loss : 86.12€
Total Profit/Loss : 641.74€
Current Bank : 1376.96€

Lovely week I had making a nice amount, especially during the weekend.

Lost 2 ticks on Sudan vs. Zambia on Tuesday ( not visible in the P/L picture because it's on page 2 ) and that was the only loss I had during the whole week. There are two things that I would like to talk about in this post.

On Saturday, the match Sevilla vs. Osasuna had a particularly scary moment when Sevilla got a penalty at the 90th minute when the match was tied at 1 goal. I was chatting with my brother ( through messenger ) because he was watching the match on TV so I told him to let me know in case Sevilla scored the penalty. A few seconds later he said yes so I quickly backed Sevilla at 1.03 to lay at 1.01. I got matched at 1.03 and my brother immediately told me that the penalty would have to be retaken but surprisingly the market was opened so I didn't believe him, thought he was joking. If I knew the goal was disallowed and the penalty to be retaken I'd have get out in the blink of an eye at the current best price which was 1.04 so I'd have lost 1 tick. The market remained open for 10-15 seconds. I had a 500€ chunk matched at 1.03 and now you know the scenario. If he had missed it, I would have lost it. Thankfully, he scored again and everything was fine giving me a green book of 22.19€. I already had a greenbook of 13€ at the time it happened. Scary!

The other thing that I'd like to mention in this post happened in the match between Sp Lisbon and Porto. Sp Lisbon was winning by 2-0 during the first half and just a minute before going to half-time I entered the market to occupy some good positions in the queues but after 30 seconds I got matched and that could have been disastrous if Porto scored during that moment. Thankfully I made an easy and quick tick and the match went to half-time just a few seconds later. I can't forget that 1 second is more than enough to waste a huge % of my profits. I simply can't afford to take these kind of risks even when it's a small one just like it was in this case.

Here's the P/L from the last week:

Did it again !

Profit/Loss : 161.09€
Total Profit/Loss : 555.62€
Current Bank : 1290.84€

Another profitable week and weekend. Traded quite well, not being greedy and accepting a loss here and there when things were going against me and always accepting the profits that were given to me. The ability of taking a small loss quickly and not being bored about it defines it all. That's what happened on Newcastle vs. Bolton. Also, the match between Atl. Madrid and Real Madrid I could have made a 1 tick profit ( around +4.80€ greenbook ) quite easily. Sold 500€ at 1.14 and was in the queue to buy at 1.13. I was near the front of the queue but the game was about to get restarted so I gave it up. The match restarted and 50 seconds later I'd have been fully matched. It didn't piss me off because it was the right thing to do. This is the sort of mental attitude that makes me happy with myself and tells me that I'm improving quite well.

Here's the P/L screenshot:

There's a good chance I'll establish a new personal record this month in terms of profit if I can make more 100€. I won't force it, if it comes then great, if it doesn't, I won't care.

By the way, what do you guys do when there's a problem with your internet connection/computer freezes/betfair crashes/whatever and you have an open position in a market that needs to be closed quickly. Does Betfair have a phone number for this kind of situations ?

A day to remember !

No P/L today, I'll post it at the end of the week as usual but today I wanted to write a little bit about what happened today so that it gets archived.

Last night, saw Milan at 2.32 and thought it could be a good price compared to what bookmakers were offering ( Bwin 1.85, Sportingbet 2.00 and Paddypower 1.90 ) so I backed at 2.32 in the hope of laying it in the 2.20s. Soon after I found myself in doubt of my position because there was an uptrend forming but I decided to go to bed and wait for a reversal because 2.32 seemed a bit high for me. See my entry point in the picture below ( blue dot ).

Today woke up early and saw the chart you can see in the picture above. The price was at 2.34. Thought exiting the trade with a small loss but no... I was in hope of a profit so I let it stay for a few more hours. I set up a mental stop loss at 2.38. At the end of the morning the price was above 2.40 which seemed quite impossible for me when I backed last night and my mental stop loss was of no help. Obviously I got out immediately at 2.48 and some at 2.50 ( best prices I could get at the time to get out immediately ). Immediately after I left the price came down again and was under 2.30 before the match went underway. So disappointing.

I'm still a newbie at doing technical analysis but from my point of view that volume peak in combination with the price touching the uptrend line for the 3rd time was a strong signal that the price was about to be pushed up a bit more. Honestly, I've seen it but ignored it. Why ? First, I was convinced 2.32 was high for AC Milan for the game in question. Second, I guess I was influenced by the weight of money ( it was in my favor ). From what I've seen, the weight of money is completely useless in 99% of the cases but I still feel I'm influenced by it. It would be good to have an option for not showing it.

At the end I was left with a -16.23€ redbook. It's within my maximum allowed loss defined by my money management model so that's not very problematic but the way I traded left me very very disappointed.

Then came a good trade at the half-time of Real Madrid vs. Mallorca. Had a greenbook of 2.01€ when failed to see that the match was about to get underway, people were closing positions and I got caught on a small price reversal, the game went underway and I had no option but to leave at the best price available which turned my greenbook into a redbook of -0.24€. Guess I'm going to subscribe to a new sports channel so I can watch more games on TV. It would have been of a great help in this case.

Last match I traded today was Valencia vs. Betis. Got a good price after valencia scored 2-0 but I didn't greenup because I thought about let it run for one more tick. What happened ? Betis scored and I was forced to lay at a higher price reducing my profits to 50%. Accepting the profit is an old rule that I've been applying quite often and that makes me happy when I'm able to apply this basic ( but very important ) rules but in this match I completely failed to apply it. I don't have any doubt that the previous trades were the main reason. As a poker player would say, "I was on tilt".

Some people would say it's a day to forget but I prefer to think it's a day to remember. Hope I never forget the mistakes I made today so I can avoid them tomorrow.

You offered, I accepted it !

Profit/Loss : 164.87€
Total Profit/Loss : 394.53€
Current Bank : 1129.75€

First of all, let me clarify the -0.01€ loss I talked about in the last post. I received a call from Betfair clarifying the situation. What happened was that my back bet was matched by someone on a different currency which means that there were some conversions involved and therefore these discrepancies are very likely to happen. This didn't cross my mind at the time but thanks to Betfair for the explanation. In fact, this happened again during this weekend, 1 cent is 1 cent, so why bother ? Let's move on.

On Thursday I was the lucky guy that got 2.00 and 2.50 offered on the draw when Arsenal equalized 1-1 at the 79th minute. Obviously I accepted and backed 400€, some at 2.50 and the rest at 2.00, some seconds later I laid at 1.54 and made a greenbook of 121.74€. I'm very sorry for the guy that made the mistake but this game is tough and we have to take every chance we can.

The weekend didn't start very well, horrible Saturday making less than 10€ and horrible start of Sunday losing -6.75€ on the horses. I made a stupid mistake of entering the market with too much money breaking my money management model ( more on this on a future post ) but honestly I didn't notice it until I got out of the market but at least I didn't let the loss run and was able to get out quickly. I must confess that I was missing the horses so this weekend I decided to go there and try to make a few € if I could but things started badly and I had to leave with a loss. Needless to say that I forgot the horses and moved on to some football but I'll get back at the horses some time soon, I want to make the horses my main trading sport. Is it necessary to explain why ?

Sunday's afternoon was quite interesting but ended much better than it started making more than 30€ is just two matches. Having patience is a great advantage, is it not ? Check out the P/L screenshot.

I guess I already talked about this before but anyway, I'll soon be posting about my money management model and I'll also talk a bit about my future goals. I know I'm lazy so this may take a couple of weeks... :)

Winning Streak is over !

Profit/Loss : 35.07€
Total Profit/Loss : 229.66€
Current Bank : 964.88€

Unfortunately my winning streak since 8th of December is gone thanks to a FA Cup match but only lost -0.11€ so not much of a problem. I was 1 tick up but tried to get one more and then the second half was about to get underway and I had to leave losing a ridiculous sum of -0.11€. I'd be less happier if I had let the trade go inplay but I didn't! Discipline!!!

The week was quite interesting, made a nice profit but the weekend was poor. No matches at Italy and Germany yet and FA Cup in England. I hate cup matches I must say, but in the end a profit is a profit.

For those that don't know how these trades are made, here's how. These trades are done during the half-time when no goals can be scored. I always try to get 1 or 2 ticks, sometimes it's possible to extract 3 or even 4 but that's all. I had enough of inplay trading that's why I decided to follow this low-risk approach which is giving me very good results in terms of strike rate. The profit is low but I'm happy this way. If I can get 800€/month in the future that will be sufficient to make me happy and that's going to happen very soon if my bank keeps growing like it is now. Patience my friend, patience!

In the following picture you can also see a loss of -0.01€ on Dep. Corunha vs. Atl. Madrid which surprised me quite a lot. I backed and layed 400€ @ 1.01 so I should have no profit/loss. I've already contacted betfair because I'd like to know how this was calculated. Let's wait for an answer.

And that's the way the cookie crambles! Ah ah ah!

Quick update

Profit/Loss : 18.58€
Total Profit/Loss : 194.59€
Current Bank : 929.81€

Here's last week result. A poor week in terms of the number of football matches available to trade on but I can't complain much because all were green once again.

December's P/L was muched better than November's despite having had a stupid weekend in the beginning of the month where I managed to lose around 10€ ( see previous posts ).

As an aside note, I don't have a red trade since 8th of December. Let's see for how long I'll be able to keep this winning streak going.

I'll soon post some thoughts about my money management and about my new goals for this new year. All I can tell for now is that I'm going to raise the bar in terms of the expected profit per month but also trying to keep this low-risk approach. I'll talk more about this soon so I can clarify some ideas in my head.

Happy new year!