Last night, saw Milan at 2.32 and thought it could be a good price compared to what bookmakers were offering ( Bwin 1.85, Sportingbet 2.00 and Paddypower 1.90 ) so I backed at 2.32 in the hope of laying it in the 2.20s. Soon after I found myself in doubt of my position because there was an uptrend forming but I decided to go to bed and wait for a reversal because 2.32 seemed a bit high for me. See my entry point in the picture below ( blue dot ).
Today woke up early and saw the chart you can see in the picture above. The price was at 2.34. Thought exiting the trade with a small loss but no... I was in hope of a profit so I let it stay for a few more hours. I set up a mental stop loss at 2.38. At the end of the morning the price was above 2.40 which seemed quite impossible for me when I backed last night and my mental stop loss was of no help. Obviously I got out immediately at 2.48 and some at 2.50 ( best prices I could get at the time to get out immediately ). Immediately after I left the price came down again and was under 2.30 before the match went underway. So disappointing.
I'm still a newbie at doing technical analysis but from my point of view that volume peak in combination with the price touching the uptrend line for the 3rd time was a strong signal that the price was about to be pushed up a bit more. Honestly, I've seen it but ignored it. Why ? First, I was convinced 2.32 was high for AC Milan for the game in question. Second, I guess I was influenced by the weight of money ( it was in my favor ). From what I've seen, the weight of money is completely useless in 99% of the cases but I still feel I'm influenced by it. It would be good to have an option for not showing it.
At the end I was left with a -16.23€ redbook. It's within my maximum allowed loss defined by my money management model so that's not very problematic but the way I traded left me very very disappointed.
Then came a good trade at the half-time of Real Madrid vs. Mallorca. Had a greenbook of 2.01€ when failed to see that the match was about to get underway, people were closing positions and I got caught on a small price reversal, the game went underway and I had no option but to leave at the best price available which turned my greenbook into a redbook of -0.24€. Guess I'm going to subscribe to a new sports channel so I can watch more games on TV. It would have been of a great help in this case.
Last match I traded today was Valencia vs. Betis. Got a good price after valencia scored 2-0 but I didn't greenup because I thought about let it run for one more tick. What happened ? Betis scored and I was forced to lay at a higher price reducing my profits to 50%. Accepting the profit is an old rule that I've been applying quite often and that makes me happy when I'm able to apply this basic ( but very important ) rules but in this match I completely failed to apply it. I don't have any doubt that the previous trades were the main reason. As a poker player would say, "I was on tilt".
Some people would say it's a day to forget but I prefer to think it's a day to remember. Hope I never forget the mistakes I made today so I can avoid them tomorrow.
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