Clicking the Wrong Buttons

So close !

2008-12-01T00:14:00.005Z

Profit/Loss : 927.48€
Total Profit/Loss : 6502.49€
Current Bank : 7429.97€

Unfortunately missed the 1000€ target by just a few euros. Lost around 200€ right on the beginning of the month and the last 2 weeks weren't very profitable. I'm using a new version of Fairbot and I'm having a hard time to get confortable with it. I was too confortable with a previous version so I wasn't enjoying the idea of switching to a new version but I had no other choice because the older one stopped working. Shame !

During the next month I'll be setting new goals for the new year.

Here's the P/L screenshot of November :

Finally there !

2008-10-31T23:17:00.003Z

Profit/Loss : 1174.51€
Total Profit/Loss : 5575.01€
Current Bank : 6310.27€

When I started the blog I've set a goal of making 1000€/month. I'm finally there ! But... it's not time to celebrate yet, I must keep this figure above 1000€/month consistently ( ~3 months ) and then I can say I've really made it.

Cya !

Second best month ever !

2008-09-30T23:40:00.004+01:00

Profit/Loss : 631.00€
Total Profit/Loss : 4400.5€
Current Bank : 5135.76€

Finally back to normal winnings. I've tried something different in the beginning of the month but got burned so switched back to normal strategy and the profit isn't bad.

Here's the P/L from September:

It's my second best month ever.

Cya!

Bang !

2008-08-31T21:51:00.002+01:00

Profit/Loss : 170.68€
Total Profit/Loss : 3769.54€
Current Bank : 4504.76€

What a crap ! This month had my second biggest loss ever. An ugly redbook of -382€. I guess that's what happens when you have more than a month without a single loss, you feel too much confidence and then bang ! Right on my face ! To make things worse today had another redbook of -80€. It's ok, I can live with that, but it's very frustrating to waste that much. Still managed to finish the month with some profit.

Here's this month's screenshot :

I really need to spice things up a little bit, I'm getting too lazy to keep on going with these stupid profits. If I can't make more than this than it's better to just give up. It doesn't worth the time really. Spending the whole weekend watching football to profit less than 100€ is a waste of time in my opinion. So, from now on I'll take a much more agressive approach.

Hope you had a better month! :)

Another quite month

2008-08-02T18:15:00.005+01:00

Profit/Loss : 168.83€
Total Profit/Loss : 3598.86€
Current Bank : 4334.08€

No highlights during July, it was another very calm month.

I'm expecting August to be slightly better and from here on it will only improve. I've made my second withdrawal, I'll keep on withdrawing everything above 2000€ on a monthly basis but only when the amount to withdraw exceeds 1000€.

Quite month

2008-07-01T00:09:00.003+01:00

Profit/Loss : 288.61€
Total Profit/Loss : 3430.03€
Current Bank :4165.25€

Even though we had the Euro 2008 this was a very quite month for me. The Euro 2008 matches simply didn't suit me so I ignored most of them. Almost all of my football trades during this month were made in some south american leagues such as the brazilian and the argentinian.

Cya!

Update

2008-06-01T10:59:00.004+01:00

Profit/Loss : 578.59€
Total Profit/Loss : 3141.42€
Current Bank : 3876.64€

Suffered two "big" losses since the last update. Both happened during the last/first days of April/May, -30€ and -50€.

I'm expecting the next couple of months to be very quiet. I'll be very happy to make 500€ in the next two months together.

Not good but still unbeatable

2008-04-27T23:29:00.003+01:00

Profit/Loss : 82.77€
Total Profit/Loss : 2562.83€
Current Bank : 3298.05€

What a poor number ! What a boring week ! Just a few opportunities here and there but very poor overall.

I guess I know why my trading is getting so boring. It's simply because I'm following my plan strictly. By following the plan, I'm not found in some scary situations, that's why it's so boring. People love gambling because of the adrenaline, there's no adrenaline in my trading, therefore, it's boring, but hey, I'm still unbeatable since day 9. :-)

Profitable and boring. Let the plan be fulfilled ! Eh eh eh !

Cya !

Routine !

2008-04-20T21:58:00.004+01:00

Profit/Loss : 128.05€
Total Profit/Loss : 2480.06€
Current Bank : 3215.28€

A good week and a poor weekend for the record. It was probably one of my best weeks so far making around 75€ without too much effort in just a couple of matches.

The wekeend didn't provide many good opportunities but I can't complain much because I haven't had any redbook. All green once again, 11 days gone without a single loss, however, I'm still far from my previous record of almost a month.

Football seasons near the end, just a few matches left. I still need to prepare for the transition to the horse racing markets. I'm quite sure it will be painful in the beginning but I'm sure I'll find a profitable path. Can't wait !

That's more like it !

2008-04-13T23:23:00.005+01:00

Profit/Loss : 312.57€
Total Profit/Loss : 2352.01€
Current Bank : 3087.23€

No, I won't miss this week update! It wasn't a busy weekend for me, so here I am to post an update of this past week.

This week I felt like my interest was going down a little bit but the weeked brought me the profit I wished so no complaints! Before the weekend started I had in mind that my profit for the current month wasn't that good and then I almost doubled it in two days, lovely!

Also, this weekend, I've seen a fellow trader almost being wiped out. He incurred on a loss similar to the one I suffered when I started this blog, a big red figure! A loss of around 200€ caused him to extend it to 800€ just because he wanted to get the 200 back. How stupid he was. Now, he's the first to admit he was an asshole but it's impressive to think that in just a few seconds we can be wiped out from these markets. It's good to analyze others behaviour in these situations, it might be helpful when we get ourselves in a similar situation.

Don't lose your head, I won't lose mine! :)

Not good, not bad !

2008-04-06T21:43:00.006+01:00

Profit/Loss : 213.87€
Total Profit/Loss : 2039.44€
Current Bank : 2774.66€

Again, I missed the post from last weekend but I have a good excuse. I had to work the whole weekend which left me with almost no time to trade, I only managed to do one or two trades during the evening.

During these two last weeks I managed to lose two nice amounts which left me a bit upset with myself. Each loss around the 30€ figure. The last one happened today on Man Utd's match while I was trading ( or trying to ) before the match started. There was lots of money sitting on each price when suddenly it went up 3 ticks and I got two orders matched, I had to trade out losing 3 ticks. Damn! I thought I had two good positions on the lay side and all of a sudden they weren't that good ! I'm still unable to understand how these movements happen, especially because there's lots of money on each price. There must be some big guys with huge pockets out there!

The rest of the day ( today ) I had to work just to make it back but at least I made it, I ended the day with an astonishing 3€ profit. I'm sure better days will come.

March was my best month so far, not far from my ultimate goal of 1000€/month. Check out the picture:

Football seasons are almost in the end so I've already started preparing to move to the horse racing markets. I've been there in the past and I can't wait to get back to them.

No progress with my software since the last post. I hope I'll have some news about it during this month. Stay tuned!

Just an update!

2008-03-23T23:44:00.005Z

Profit/Loss : 211.39€
Total Profit/Loss : 1825.57€
Current Bank : 2560.79€

First of all, I'd like to point out that I've skipped the post from last week simply because I had a very busy weekend so I didn't have the time to post last week's update. Many things happened during the last 2 weeks ( this one included ) which kept me quite busy.

To start this post, I'll first write about last week's weekend and then I'll write about this one.

So, last weekend I bought a laptop and had to install all the usual software, setting everything up took me almost a day while still trying to do some trading. I wasn't very comfortable to trade using the new laptop so I wasn't expecting to beat a record or something. It was an uneventful week, just followed my basic plan, taking a tick here and there without too much risk.

This weekend was another busy weekend. I used to advantage the fact that I didn't have to go to work on Friday to speed up things a little bit regarding the software I'm currently developing to trade on Betfair. It's something that I'll start to write about as well, so that I can keep track of the development too.

Yesterday I made a couple of mistakes that irritated me quite a bit. First, I did something that's not usual which was to lay a team that scored the goal just after the market reopened. I layed Udinese ( against Livorno at home ) at 1.05 expecting to back at 1.06/1.07 but I wasn't that lucky and I had to back at 1.03 giving me a redbook of around -14€. I felt stupid really. Then after this stupid mistakes I lost 2 ticks in 2 consecutive half-times, not that I've done a stupid mistake here, it was just normal trading. That gave me 3 losses in a row, it's not very normal for me, fortunetely! Ended the Saturday with a loss of -9€.

Today it was a much better day, didn't catch anything special but picked up several little opportunities here and there, tick by tick I made a daily profit of 71€. I couldn't resist to put some money on the Tennis final between Fish and Dojkovic but well, I'm awful at trading tennis so I ended with a loss of -6€. I still have everything to learn about Tennis, watching the game live on betfair ( livevideo ) and watching the odds moving was a good practice to me, I'll give it another shot on another match sometime soon.

I thought I'd post here a picture about the current state of my software, it's in the early stages so it doesn't allow me to do anything except to nagivate through the markets menu, opening a market and watching the prices being updated with an interval of 8 seconds or something. The visual interface is still rough, I'm still doing lots of tests. Just bear in mind that everything is temporary.

( The market information shown in the picture has nothing to do with the market in question. )

Momentum kept! Let's keep it again...

2008-03-09T23:47:00.007Z

Profit/Loss : 326.41€
Total Profit/Loss : 1614.18€
Current Bank : 2349.40€

I never thought I could be making this much on a single week but I am. If I'm able to keep this pace I'll be achieving my ultimate goal of 1000€/month very quickly, obviously it's good but a bit disappointing because I thought it would be tougher.

Unfortunately my winning streak since 24th of February was broken on 5th of March with a loss of -8.48€ and lost again on 6th of March an amount of -3.25€. Haven't lost any since then.

I must confess this blog is becoming boring but I've done it just to keep track of my progress, this is not supposed to be fun, is it ? Although, if you have any suggestion to make this any more fun, I'd be grateful to hear it.

Keeping the momentum

2008-03-02T22:17:00.007Z

Profit/Loss : 145.00€
Total Profit/Loss : 1287.77€
Current Bank : 2022.99€

Another month comes to an end and I've established a new personal record. It's quite normal that I keep beating my previous records simply because money makes money. Here's the P/L screenshot from February.

This week was one of those good weeks where everything I touched was transformed in profit. Made no mistake, just good trading practices. I wasn't expecting this week to be so good just because the weekend was very busy for me in contrast with what's usual. Had some visits on saturday and on sunday so I wasn't totally focused on trading but I found enough time to get myself locked in my room for some tradings.

At the moment I'm trading with 950€ chunks and there aren't many markets out there capable of accepting such an amount. It's becoming more difficult to enter in some kind of markets I used to participate which leads me into thinking that establishing a maximum chunk size might be a good ideia, 1000€ is probably a good value. Unfortunetely this destroys my current plan which relies on continually growing stakes without a pre-defined maximum. It's something that I'll have to think about.

I'm on a winning streak since 24th of February, just hope it continues for a few more weeks.

Have a nice week!

Best week so far !

2008-02-24T23:12:00.004Z

Profit/Loss : 241.59€
Total Profit/Loss : 1142.77€
Current Bank : 1877.99€

What a week!

My expected profit for this month is 158.96€ and only this week I made much more than that. Marvelous !

Only 2 redbooks during the whole weekend and only 1 mistake.

Sorry but I can't go into more details because I'll have to go to bed, it's too late! If you have any questions, just post a comment and I'll be glad to answer.

Cya!

Mental fragility !

2008-02-17T23:08:00.006Z

Profit/Loss : 24.03€
Total Profit/Loss : 901.18€
Current Bank : 1636.40€

At the moment, my mental fragility is coming up to the surface, I have no doubt about that. I'm finding it hard to keep a good mental attitude which leads to some stupid mistakes, fortunetely this time without major consequences. This is the time when I start to feel that a big loss is just around the corner, I can smell it ! It's time to lock the gates and keep every penny behind closed doors and let the storm go away.

During the half-time of Zaragoza - Barcelona the market was trading at 1.29 to sell ( back ) and 1.30 to buy ( lay ) with some sets of 10k on each side waiting to get matched. I was in a good position at 1.29 to sell and about to put my sell order at 1.30 so I could make a 1 tick profit. What happened next was nasty. Someone came in with 340k ( yeah, you read it well, 340k !!! ) and changed the market to 1.28 to sell and 1.29 to buy and obviously I got matched at 1.29 in the blink of an eye and was left in a bad position, I had to leave with a 1 tick loss. This was the third loss in a row. I was totally pissed off! How can someone join a market with 340k ? Isn't it dangerous for him ? These are the kind of situations that puts me on a mental state that leads me to many mistakes. There was no way I could have predicted that those 340k were coming in against me and that doesn't make me very happy. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr !!

I made a terrible mistake that made me laugh for some time. Bayern Munich was playing at Hannover and scored the first goal. I thought about trying to enter the market to get some nice odds so I thought that 1.39 could be a good price. As soon as the suspended screen dissapeared I submitted my bet. My bet ( 650€ @ 1.39 ) was sitting in there with no more bets in the market, I was there all alone. Obviously, I immediately thought that there was something very bad happening and then I saw my money getting eaten away at a slow pace. It was only then that I noticed that I was on the "next goal" market and not on the "match odds" market. Fortunetely, only 125€ got matched but I was left in a very bad situation, tried to get out at the best prices possible, 2, 2.10, 2.12, 2.14 and so on. It wasn't easy to get out as there was almost no money in that market. I was green on Bayern M. to score the next goal and red on the other outcomes and guess what happened. Bayern M. scored a bit later and that stupid mistake gave my 20€. How that happened ? Well, I don't really know what happened but during the suspension my software changed from one market to the other, I haven't noticed it because the suspension screen is equal on all markets. What a lucky bastard I am !

During the Saturday I had 4 losses in a row which is my new losing record. It doesn't make me proud but it's just to let you know.

My Trading Plan

2008-02-12T01:14:00.000Z

Several weeks after I've promised to write about my current trading plan, here it is. It's not a waste of time to write about this kind of things. It also helps me to remaind my own rules.

For those that don't know what money management is, in a few words, it's what prevents you from going broke in a couple of bad shots. It is what allows you to survive as long as possible to keep fighting to achieve your goals. It is your survival kit. I'll define my scheme here and hope to follow it religiously which sometimes isn't easy as you might know.

So, my money management is quite simple and obeys to very basic rules.

The amount I'm allowed to lose on a market is predifined by a percentage of my bank established at the beginning of each month. If my previous month ends on a profit then a new maximum allowed loss is calculated based on that %, if my previous month ends on a loss then I keep the same maximum allowed loss from that previous month. I'm currently "allowed" to lose 2% of my bank on a market. I may change this to 1% as my bank reaches higher values but for now I'll keep at this value. It's important to say that I don't wait for my trades to hit this 2% loss to get out, I leave as soon as possible if things aren't looking good but if for some reason a bad trade hits this 2%, an alarm raises and I'm forced to leave no matter what.

Maybe I should also define a maximum value I'm allowed to put in the market just in case something goes wrong with Betfair. Imagine that Betfair crashes and I have 75% of my bank in the market for a trade, not a good scenario, is it ? Obviously, I'm not expecting Betfair to crash but I've heard some saying that it already happened and some have lost some large amounts because of that. Has it happened to you ? What mechanisms do you have in place to minimize the consequences of such situations ? I'd love to hear what do you think about this.

Initially I thought about establishing a maximum bank size of 2000€. I was thinking about withdrawing everything above that value on a monthly basis ( can't wait for my first withdrawal eheh ) but I've changed my mind simply because such a low bank isn't very compatible with my current low risk strategy, it would generate low profits. My main goal is 1000€ per month and using my current strategy I need a bank size of much more than 2000€. I'll need a bank of around 6000€ to make me 1000€ per month.

Here are a few screenshots from my spreadsheet that I use to calculate me everything that I need to know.

What these tables tells me is quite simple. The rows are the % of my maximum allowed loss per market. I'm currently on the 2% plan, so I forget the other rows except the 2%. The columns are the number of ticks I think I may lose on the market in case things go wrong. Combining both the row and the column gives me my tick size. A tick size is the amount you win/lose with just one tick. During the most of my trades I think I may lose a maximum of 4 ticks, so according to to the first table, my tick size must be 0.005% of the starting bank of the current month. The table below tells me how much € is that, 6,96€. I usually round down this value to multiples of 0,50€, so in this case I trade with tick sizes of 6,50€.

This table is used to keep a record of my profits and to establish a comparison to a simple forecasting given an expected % profit per month. At the moment I'm expecting to make 15% per month, I think it's quite an achieveable value.

This image is a kind of main page that sums it all up. Cells surrounded by a black box are values that must be edited by the user, the others are outputs. I think all fields are self-explanatory. Just note that the starting bank in the picture doesn't match the starting bank of this blog because the spreadsheet is for 2008 and I started this blog in 2007.

Feel free to throw some question at me. I'd be happy to answer. I'd also be happy to read about your trading plan.

Think I'm leaving now, it's too late, bed is calling for me. Cya !

Eventful week !

2008-02-10T22:18:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 179.82€
Total Profit/Loss : 877.15€
Current Bank : 1612.37€

What an eventful week ! Everything happened this week. Bad trades, perfect trades and even some stupid connection drops during some busy times.

Saturday was an awful day. Made some very bad trades which costed me around 20€. Fortunetely for my bank I made around 165€ on a single football match ( Atalanta vs. Fiorentina ) by taking a good price on the draw just after an equalising goal at the 90th minute. It was a green day but not a happy day. I'd have preferred to have a 20€ profit with good trading practices instead of what I got. Went to bed thinking about what went wrong and didn't take much time to come to a conclusion, because it was getting too easy, I was rushing in to make a profit at all costs instead of waiting for the right moment to step in.

Sunday was a different day, changed my behaviour slightly and everything went according to the plan. Ended with a profit of 57€ on the day. Pretty simple when you follow your plan.

Here's the screenshot, a bit shorter this time.

Remember my first post ? A loss of 819€ on a single football match made me create this blog to help me stay focused and disciplined in trying to get it all back. It took me around 3 months but it's finally back in my pocket!

I'd just like to point out that my bank is at the highest value I ever had. I'm having bigger profits than I predicted so I'm not expecting this to continue much longer.

Cya!

Thieves !!!

2008-02-04T23:03:00.000Z

Something bad happened today! Something that should not have happened!

I was keeping an eye on Setúbal - Naval match and when Naval scored 0-2 I tried to take a couple of ticks when the odds were trying to calm down. I got partially matched at 1.16 and was going to buy at 1.13. As soon as I touched the submit button my software returned an error, I looked at my modem/router and the DSL led was blinking ! Connection drop ! A greenbook of 6€ was at one click away!

When I got my connection up again ( took around 30 seconds ) the first thing I saw was SUSPENDED on the screen. Setúbal scored 1-2 and I had to leave with a redbook of 62€, fucking great!

Having just one connection drop is not what bothers me. What really bothers me is that I have connection drops every single day, like 3 or 4 per day and I've complained to my ISP before about this and they said to me they were going to fix it! Guess what, it's the very same shit since October 2007. I've just called them once again complaining about it and they came to me with the same bullshit. They are just a bunch of a stupid assholes that don't even know what a computer is! They seem to be programmed to say the same shit over and over again on the phone, just like a stupid bot!

What kills me is the fact that there's no one to support me against these thieves. It's a battle that I cannot win. There are no authorities! Nobody takes responsabilities for what happens ! Shit happens and nobody is to blame ! They are all a bunch of thieves!

One week blown away, fucking great! One day they are gonna eat my shit!

Why ?

2008-02-03T22:16:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 55.59€
Total Profit/Loss : 697.33€
Current Bank : 1432.55€

The P/L may look interesting but this weekend was not a good one. I've made 3 mistakes, 2 were absolutely stupid, the other one was due to innocence.

Saturday started as usual, one tick here and there and the bank building quite well without missing a trade. The last match of the day between Benfica and Nacional I decided to enter the half-time for one more tick but failed to see that there wasn't enough money in the market for me to enter. I was completely blind thinking about getting another tick because everything seems so easy. It went against me and it was difficult to get out so I had to took the best price to get out and lost something around 2 ticks. Because the day was going so well this one pissed me off quite badly as usual. Failing to see that I shouldn't have entered in such a market was one of the 2 stupid mistakes. Next...

Sunday started well but soon I had something ugly in my hands. The match between Inter and Empoli was an interesting one. Inter started the match at odds of 1.15 and during the first half they scored 1-0. Odds went down to 1.06 but then there was a sending off from Inter and odds went up to something around 1.15. By the time the match went to half-time the best prices were 1.17 - 1.20 so I offered 1.19 to lay. During the 8 seconds delay before any inplay bet joins the market, the market went up to 1.19 - 1.20 so I got matched immediately, something that I wasn't expecting ( first warning sign telling me to leave it immediately ? ). From then on the price kept moving up and in a few seconds reached 1.23-1.24. Damn, I wasn't understanding what the hell was going on. Inter started at 1.15 with the result 0-0 and still 90 minutes to play and with the result 1-0 and just 45 minutes to play they were above 1.20s, 1 man difference shouldn't be such a huge problem for Inter. I couldn't understand it really and that was what allowed to stay in the market for a bit more time because I thought that it would go down to where it was in just a few seconds. Sometimes these markets behave a bit erraticaly and correct themselves in a few seconds. But this time it didn't happened I had to leave with a redbook of -31€. My money manegement allows me to have a maximum loss of around 26€, I was in shock. All weekend was wasted. Then the second stupid mistake came. In my mind I could only thought about getting it back somehow so my only chance was to go inplay. Inter's price remained at 1.20 until there was only 15 minutes to play ( can someone explain to me why ?!? ). I knew that the price would have to start to fall at hight speed towards 1.01, so I just waited for the right moment to step in and take the ride and so it happened, made a few ticks and ended winning 1.63 on this match. One of my gold rules is to simply not enter on inplay markets. It's too risky and I've tasted its flavor a couple of times. Shame on me, I feel so stupid !

By the way, I had my first trade on Tennis that went quite well. It was a match between Israel and Russian for the Federations Cup and it was easily to see that the Russian player was much better than the Israeli so I just backed the Russian player and laid one tick lower. Simple.

Here's the P/L from this last week.

I've beaten my previous profit record in a month by just 6€. January is a new record for me. Here's the P/L screenshot from January.

I guess I'm going to take a look at the SuperBowl markets now and see if I can take a tick or two.

Cya!

Scary

2008-01-27T22:04:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 86.12€
Total Profit/Loss : 641.74€
Current Bank : 1376.96€

Lovely week I had making a nice amount, especially during the weekend.

Lost 2 ticks on Sudan vs. Zambia on Tuesday ( not visible in the P/L picture because it's on page 2 ) and that was the only loss I had during the whole week. There are two things that I would like to talk about in this post.

On Saturday, the match Sevilla vs. Osasuna had a particularly scary moment when Sevilla got a penalty at the 90th minute when the match was tied at 1 goal. I was chatting with my brother ( through messenger ) because he was watching the match on TV so I told him to let me know in case Sevilla scored the penalty. A few seconds later he said yes so I quickly backed Sevilla at 1.03 to lay at 1.01. I got matched at 1.03 and my brother immediately told me that the penalty would have to be retaken but surprisingly the market was opened so I didn't believe him, thought he was joking. If I knew the goal was disallowed and the penalty to be retaken I'd have get out in the blink of an eye at the current best price which was 1.04 so I'd have lost 1 tick. The market remained open for 10-15 seconds. I had a 500€ chunk matched at 1.03 and now you know the scenario. If he had missed it, I would have lost it. Thankfully, he scored again and everything was fine giving me a green book of 22.19€. I already had a greenbook of 13€ at the time it happened. Scary!

The other thing that I'd like to mention in this post happened in the match between Sp Lisbon and Porto. Sp Lisbon was winning by 2-0 during the first half and just a minute before going to half-time I entered the market to occupy some good positions in the queues but after 30 seconds I got matched and that could have been disastrous if Porto scored during that moment. Thankfully I made an easy and quick tick and the match went to half-time just a few seconds later. I can't forget that 1 second is more than enough to waste a huge % of my profits. I simply can't afford to take these kind of risks even when it's a small one just like it was in this case.

Here's the P/L from the last week:

Did it again !

2008-01-20T21:57:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 161.09€
Total Profit/Loss : 555.62€
Current Bank : 1290.84€

Another profitable week and weekend. Traded quite well, not being greedy and accepting a loss here and there when things were going against me and always accepting the profits that were given to me. The ability of taking a small loss quickly and not being bored about it defines it all. That's what happened on Newcastle vs. Bolton. Also, the match between Atl. Madrid and Real Madrid I could have made a 1 tick profit ( around +4.80€ greenbook ) quite easily. Sold 500€ at 1.14 and was in the queue to buy at 1.13. I was near the front of the queue but the game was about to get restarted so I gave it up. The match restarted and 50 seconds later I'd have been fully matched. It didn't piss me off because it was the right thing to do. This is the sort of mental attitude that makes me happy with myself and tells me that I'm improving quite well.

Here's the P/L screenshot:

There's a good chance I'll establish a new personal record this month in terms of profit if I can make more 100€. I won't force it, if it comes then great, if it doesn't, I won't care.

By the way, what do you guys do when there's a problem with your internet connection/computer freezes/betfair crashes/whatever and you have an open position in a market that needs to be closed quickly. Does Betfair have a phone number for this kind of situations ?

A day to remember !

2008-01-17T00:00:00.001Z

No P/L today, I'll post it at the end of the week as usual but today I wanted to write a little bit about what happened today so that it gets archived.

Last night, saw Milan at 2.32 and thought it could be a good price compared to what bookmakers were offering ( Bwin 1.85, Sportingbet 2.00 and Paddypower 1.90 ) so I backed at 2.32 in the hope of laying it in the 2.20s. Soon after I found myself in doubt of my position because there was an uptrend forming but I decided to go to bed and wait for a reversal because 2.32 seemed a bit high for me. See my entry point in the picture below ( blue dot ).

Today woke up early and saw the chart you can see in the picture above. The price was at 2.34. Thought exiting the trade with a small loss but no... I was in hope of a profit so I let it stay for a few more hours. I set up a mental stop loss at 2.38. At the end of the morning the price was above 2.40 which seemed quite impossible for me when I backed last night and my mental stop loss was of no help. Obviously I got out immediately at 2.48 and some at 2.50 ( best prices I could get at the time to get out immediately ). Immediately after I left the price came down again and was under 2.30 before the match went underway. So disappointing.

I'm still a newbie at doing technical analysis but from my point of view that volume peak in combination with the price touching the uptrend line for the 3rd time was a strong signal that the price was about to be pushed up a bit more. Honestly, I've seen it but ignored it. Why ? First, I was convinced 2.32 was high for AC Milan for the game in question. Second, I guess I was influenced by the weight of money ( it was in my favor ). From what I've seen, the weight of money is completely useless in 99% of the cases but I still feel I'm influenced by it. It would be good to have an option for not showing it.

At the end I was left with a -16.23€ redbook. It's within my maximum allowed loss defined by my money management model so that's not very problematic but the way I traded left me very very disappointed.

Then came a good trade at the half-time of Real Madrid vs. Mallorca. Had a greenbook of 2.01€ when failed to see that the match was about to get underway, people were closing positions and I got caught on a small price reversal, the game went underway and I had no option but to leave at the best price available which turned my greenbook into a redbook of -0.24€. Guess I'm going to subscribe to a new sports channel so I can watch more games on TV. It would have been of a great help in this case.

Last match I traded today was Valencia vs. Betis. Got a good price after valencia scored 2-0 but I didn't greenup because I thought about let it run for one more tick. What happened ? Betis scored and I was forced to lay at a higher price reducing my profits to 50%. Accepting the profit is an old rule that I've been applying quite often and that makes me happy when I'm able to apply this basic ( but very important ) rules but in this match I completely failed to apply it. I don't have any doubt that the previous trades were the main reason. As a poker player would say, "I was on tilt".

Some people would say it's a day to forget but I prefer to think it's a day to remember. Hope I never forget the mistakes I made today so I can avoid them tomorrow.

You offered, I accepted it !

2008-01-13T23:25:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 164.87€
Total Profit/Loss : 394.53€
Current Bank : 1129.75€

First of all, let me clarify the -0.01€ loss I talked about in the last post. I received a call from Betfair clarifying the situation. What happened was that my back bet was matched by someone on a different currency which means that there were some conversions involved and therefore these discrepancies are very likely to happen. This didn't cross my mind at the time but thanks to Betfair for the explanation. In fact, this happened again during this weekend, 1 cent is 1 cent, so why bother ? Let's move on.

On Thursday I was the lucky guy that got 2.00 and 2.50 offered on the draw when Arsenal equalized 1-1 at the 79th minute. Obviously I accepted and backed 400€, some at 2.50 and the rest at 2.00, some seconds later I laid at 1.54 and made a greenbook of 121.74€. I'm very sorry for the guy that made the mistake but this game is tough and we have to take every chance we can.

The weekend didn't start very well, horrible Saturday making less than 10€ and horrible start of Sunday losing -6.75€ on the horses. I made a stupid mistake of entering the market with too much money breaking my money management model ( more on this on a future post ) but honestly I didn't notice it until I got out of the market but at least I didn't let the loss run and was able to get out quickly. I must confess that I was missing the horses so this weekend I decided to go there and try to make a few € if I could but things started badly and I had to leave with a loss. Needless to say that I forgot the horses and moved on to some football but I'll get back at the horses some time soon, I want to make the horses my main trading sport. Is it necessary to explain why ?

Sunday's afternoon was quite interesting but ended much better than it started making more than 30€ is just two matches. Having patience is a great advantage, is it not ? Check out the P/L screenshot.

I guess I already talked about this before but anyway, I'll soon be posting about my money management model and I'll also talk a bit about my future goals. I know I'm lazy so this may take a couple of weeks... :)

Winning Streak is over !

2008-01-06T22:26:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 35.07€
Total Profit/Loss : 229.66€
Current Bank : 964.88€

Unfortunately my winning streak since 8th of December is gone thanks to a FA Cup match but only lost -0.11€ so not much of a problem. I was 1 tick up but tried to get one more and then the second half was about to get underway and I had to leave losing a ridiculous sum of -0.11€. I'd be less happier if I had let the trade go inplay but I didn't! Discipline!!!

The week was quite interesting, made a nice profit but the weekend was poor. No matches at Italy and Germany yet and FA Cup in England. I hate cup matches I must say, but in the end a profit is a profit.

For those that don't know how these trades are made, here's how. These trades are done during the half-time when no goals can be scored. I always try to get 1 or 2 ticks, sometimes it's possible to extract 3 or even 4 but that's all. I had enough of inplay trading that's why I decided to follow this low-risk approach which is giving me very good results in terms of strike rate. The profit is low but I'm happy this way. If I can get 800€/month in the future that will be sufficient to make me happy and that's going to happen very soon if my bank keeps growing like it is now. Patience my friend, patience!

In the following picture you can also see a loss of -0.01€ on Dep. Corunha vs. Atl. Madrid which surprised me quite a lot. I backed and layed 400€ @ 1.01 so I should have no profit/loss. I've already contacted betfair because I'd like to know how this was calculated. Let's wait for an answer.

And that's the way the cookie crambles! Ah ah ah!

Quick update

2008-01-01T22:52:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 18.58€
Total Profit/Loss : 194.59€
Current Bank : 929.81€

Here's last week result. A poor week in terms of the number of football matches available to trade on but I can't complain much because all were green once again.

December's P/L was muched better than November's despite having had a stupid weekend in the beginning of the month where I managed to lose around 10€ ( see previous posts ).

As an aside note, I don't have a red trade since 8th of December. Let's see for how long I'll be able to keep this winning streak going.

I'll soon post some thoughts about my money management and about my new goals for this new year. All I can tell for now is that I'm going to raise the bar in terms of the expected profit per month but also trying to keep this low-risk approach. I'll talk more about this soon so I can clarify some ideas in my head.

Happy new year!

Steady growth

2007-12-24T15:33:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 40.76€
Total Profit/Loss : 176.01€
Current Bank : 911.23€

Another weekend, another healthy profit. It's been normal to have a profit of around 40€ per week, that's what happened once again, mostly during the weekend of course. Tried some horse racing but without success and left without losing/winning which isn't bad at all. I don't have the right tools to trade on the horses so I'll try to stay away from those markets while I don't get those tools. Football during the half-time and some inplay seems to be the best markets for me to trade at the moment despite the low profits.

All trades were green once again. This tells me that I'm not making too many mistakes which keeps me happy. However, I shall not trick myself into thinking that I haven't done any mistake, because I did some.

The 900€ barrier is behind me and I'm heading to the 4 digits again at a decent pace. Hope to achieve it during the first month of the new year.

Please note that I've changed the date of the last post because it simply wasn't right. I've started to write it days before publishing it and it came out with the starting date instead of the publishing date.

Mixed Feelings

2007-12-16T21:54:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 37.20€
Total Profit/Loss : 135.25€
Current Bank : 870.47€

First of all, sorry for taking so long for an update. That's how I am, lazy!

Let me separate this post in two different parts, last weekend and this weekend. Last weekend I took a loss of -8.86€. I made so many mistakes that I should have been wiped out. It all started on friday night with an NBA match between the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons. I always seemed to be on the wrong side and taking constant losses and getting pissed off about it. I had a total accumulated loss on the Pistons of around -60€ and 0€ on the Bulls. The Bulls were in front near the end of the match but were leading by just 4 or 5 points. I told myself that I couldn't afford a loss of -60€ so I took a hard decision of dividing the loss and taking a -16€ guaranteed loss. The Bulls did indeed win the game, very hard to swallow. This trading was in the back of my mind the entire weekend.

Saturday morning trading the horses I decided to buy a horse at 3.40 because I thought it would drift. It was the favourite in the race in question and there was nothing that could tell me that that horse was indeed a favourite for that race so that was why I decided to lay him. Immediately I saw him steaming to 2.80s. Obviously, I should have closed my position much earlier but I did not, I was in love with my position. Exited losing -18.94€.

During the afternoon I've entered in a self-destroying mode. I was watching the Manchester United vs. Derby County game on TV and was surprised to see Derby not conceding a goal for more than 30 minutes so I decided to do some trades on the under/over 3,5 goals market. Guess what happened, Man Utd scored two goals in 5 minutes while I had a position opened. I was very lucky to leave with a -44.84€ loss.

The rest of the weekend I was trading on a mood that is completely unacceptable. I was putting huge chunks ( almost the whole bank ) in some very very risky situations, I felt like I wanted to blow my whole bank in a few seconds, very weird feelings. I don't know how I managed to lose just -8.86€.

I'll have to work hard to get my mind right for trading. If I don't, I'll be wiped out in a couple of months because this is indeed a very tough game.

Ok, let's to move on to this weekend. In constrast with last weekend, this one I haven't missed a single trade, all green. That's something that I can't understand, I'm capable of the best and of the worst.

There's nothing special with these trades. It's the usual thing. A profit of 46.06€. It should be like this every day. :)

Hope you don't make the mistakes I made.

Tough days behind me

2007-12-04T23:07:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 34.05€
Total Profit/Loss : 98.05€
Current Bank : 833.27€

Been very busy these days due to professional reasons and haven't had the mind sharp enough to do as many tradings as I'd have wanted but since last update I managed to make a somewhat nice profit.

Lost -5.00€ today on AC Milan vs. Celtic match and ended the day with that loss. I've decided to not trade anymore today because I felt that I wasn't with the required mindset. When this happens it's better to stay away from these markets than to have a huge loss. I believe you agree with me.

It's amazing to notice how I've been cutting my profits lately. I'm picking very small profits because I'm scared of taking a considerable loss so I sneak in and out of the markets as quickly as possible. I get very satisfied to get a tick and this is starting to frustrate me, honestly. There have been several greenbooks that could have been 10x more had I stood by my decisions when I've entered the market. The problem is, if I lose this feeling of fear for a loss and then go and take a considerable loss right on the first attempt, this feeling will double its magnitude and that wouldn't be good. Now I'm experiencing how hard trading is mentally. I think I just have to choose the perfect timing/moment to break this mental barrier. I'll overcome it someway!!

November was a terrible month for me because of a single huge loss of -819.64€ in a football match, therefore, it was impossible to end the month on a green position. Here's the screenshot from my November's P&L.

The 800€ barrier was broken and is now way behind me.

Cheers!

So disappointed

2007-11-26T22:38:00.000Z

I'm so disappointed to have read on bettingtraders.com forum that Peter Webb's book seems to be a farce.

Profitable Exchange Trading was a much awaited book by all traders in sports markets. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Profitable-Exchange-Trading-Peter-Webb/dp/1843440288/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1196117312&sr=1-1
( Amazon's link to Profitable Exchange Trading book )

I was obviously interested in reading his book. I wasn't expecting magic formulas but I was hoping it could trigger some new ideas inside my mind and that would be very helpful indeed.

After having read that topic on bettingtraders I obviously cancelled my order from amazon.co.uk. Let's see if this book will ever be released, I doubt !

My weekend in review

2007-11-25T22:06:00.001Z

Profit/Loss : 41.11€
Total Profit/Loss : 64€
Current Bank : 799.23€

First of all, allow me to conside Friday night as part of the weekend so that this post doesn't get invalid because of a Friday night trade on a football match. Overall, this weekend was quite good for me, a good profit and the most important, very few mistakes and some perfect trades, technically.

Before the big loss ( see first post ) making 41.11€ a weekend would be a bad result because I could make that in one single trade quite easily. Making 200€ on a weekend wouldn't be a surprise but now things have changed. I'm putting less money into the market and exploiting less ticks as well. In case things go completely wrong or in case I go completely mad I can't lose too much. Something that I have in the back of my mind now is that the number one rule is not to lose money. It may sound obvious but it's not, if you are a trader you will understand me.

I've spent Saturday's afternoon watching football, I guess I watched to 6 or more matches making small profits in almost all of them. Some were done inplay exploiting a single tick with small chunks ( 100€ maximum ) and always when the matches were calm ( half-time included ).

During the morning I was trading ( or trying to ) on horse racing and this was where I made my biggest mistake of the weekend. Having layed a horse at 3.35 and watching it drift to 4.50 in less than 10 minutes I made a nice greenbook of 7.60€ with just a 30€ chunk trade. Quite happy I was but then I decided to mess up things a little bit and lost a tick, then tried to take it back and the race went inplay. I was lucky I managed to get out with a loss of -0.14€. I'm so stupid, it was the only loss I had during the weekend and it could have been a nice profit. Shame on me!

Hoping to break the 800€ barrier very soon!

Ouch !!!

2007-11-22T21:39:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : -4.92€
Total Profit/Loss : 22.89€
Current Bank : 758.12€

First loss in the NBA trading the Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Bobcats game. I wasn't watching the game on TV this time and that might have been the problem here. I was caught on the wrong side twice on some big swings and that was it. I'm glad the loss ( -4.92€ ) is acceptable because it could have been much worse.

Hope to get back to football during this weekend and to some good profits, hopefully.

Another greenbook

2007-11-21T23:28:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 2,43€
Total Profit/Loss : 27,81€
Current Bank : 763.04€

Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers was probably the most difficult trade I've made on NBA markets so far. There wasn't much money in the market making it very difficult to get 20€ or 30€ matched. I was in a red position in the beginning but kept my head cool and things turned around in my favor as I knew that a swing could happen soon and it happened, thankfully. I've made a 2.43€ profit in this game.

And now the Cavaliers chart at half-time, the usual swings.

Note that the Cavaliers were traded at 1.10 and lost the game.

I'll make 30€ my standard trading chunk on these markets hereafter to try to achieve a 10€ profit everyday. Let's see how it goes!

Good luck!

Another small number in the bag

2007-11-20T22:19:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 3.24€
Total Profit/Loss : 25.38€
Current Bank : 760.61€

Another trade on NBA, another greenbook.

This time was Portland Trail Blazers @ Charlotte Bobcats. Bobcats were the favourites starting at a price of 1.43 or so. I've only made 4 trades during this trading session ( went to bed at half-time as usual ), all were profitable, this time starting with 20€ chunks instead of 10€. It was enough to give me a 3.24€ profit as the Bobcats won the game by 9 points difference. Not much more to say about this trading session.

For those interested in charts, there you have the Bobcats chart at half-time.

Good luck on your tradings!

Small number but happy day

2007-11-18T14:43:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 15.34€
Total Profit/Loss : 22.14€
Current Bank : 757.37

Basketball, especially NBA, is a well known sport for me. For quite some time I was thinking about trading it but there's always a problem, time-zone. Considering that I'm an European, the hour difference means that games over here start past midnight which isn't good if you have to wake up early the next day to go to work. However, I decided to give it a try during this weekend to see how the market is.

Today the earlier game was Portland Trail Blazers @ Washington Wizards, the Wizards were the favourites even though their best player wasn't going to play due to a knee injury. I've started by backing the Wizards which were comfortably in the lead the whole game. I've traded in small chunks, mainly 10€ and a couple of 20€ trades by backing the Wizards and laying them 5 or more ticks lower. One thing was clear from the beginning, these markets don't have much money which can be a huge problem for traders, so be aware and don't trade with huge chunks because if you are caught on the wrong side you might find yourself in a deep hole.

Wizards won the match comfortably by a margin of 19 points giving me a profit of 6.07€.

For those that are not familiar with NBA markets, I took a screenshot of the Washington Wizards chart ( at half-time ) last night against the Portland Trail Blazers to show you how this market can be very good to trade. Wizards started with an SP of 1.60 or so. Blazers scored first ( 2-0 ) and just because of that the Wizards drifted a little bit to 1.70 which is insane in my opinion. They immediately pulled it back and the price steamed a lot as you can see in the image. I can't see why people overreact so much, a 2 points difference in the beginning of a Basketball game is nothing.

Another NBA game today where I made some trades was Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors. Toronto were the favourites but not by much, so I've started this game by laying them ( SP at 1.40s ) and backing a few ticks above quite easily because the Warriors started a little bit better and as the market tends to overreact to everything that happens in the game it was quite easy to get matched a few ticks above. The Raptors quickly took the lead and so it was until I left the game. With just 5 or 6 minutes left in the game, the Warriors were losing by 3 points and were available to back at 4.50 !! By that time I already had my 9.27€ greenbook done and wasn't in the mood of wasting it, you know what I mean. Guess what, 3 minutes later they were available to lay at odds under 2.00 and ended winning the game by 6 points margin.

Here's the Raptors chart when I left the game, lots of swings.

I haven't traded Tennis yet but just from what I've heard from some fellow traders is that these swings also happen there very often which is good if you are on the right side. It seems like I'll have to start trading Tennis!

Happy trading!

A much needed win

2007-11-17T23:02:00.000Z

Profit/Loss : 6.80€
Total Profit/Loss : 6.80€
Current Bank : 742.03€

After several consecutive losing days it's always good to have a positive one.

Euro 2008 qualifying game between Portugal and Armenia. Portugal was a clear favourite and could only afford a victory. When the game was 1-0 I sneaked in for a single tick giving me a profit of 6.80€. It's a small number but it was a very important win for me, it boosted my confidence which was the most important thing from this greenbook.

It's time to get it all back!

Welcome

2007-11-17T18:16:00.000Z

Welcome to my sports trading blog. This is where I'll keep my trading results on betfair so that you can see it with your own eyes.

I'll first talk about my previous results so that all the rest that comes here after makes some sense.

I've been making some good profits over the last few months but last Sunday I wasted them all.

Last Sunday I lost 819.65€ on a single football match. It was Chelsea vs. Everton when Chelsea was in front 1-0. I had 34€ greened up on that match when it all happened. I thought I could sneak in and out of the market very quickly to extract one more tick that would give me an extra 10€ ( 1000€ staked at 0.01 increments ). There were 3 or 4 minutes left in the game and I was watching it on TV. I got matched at 1.05 and I was trying to get out at 1.04 but the market moved one tick against me so I immediately changed my lay bet to 1.05 to turn it into a scratch bet because I didn't want to stay in too much time with such a high exposure in the market. It was taking too much time to get matched and I was starting to get nervous. Guess what happened, disaster, Everton scored 1-1 at the 89th minute!

The end result of this sad story was that all my profits from this football season were gone and so my confidence.

It's clear that I've made a huge mistake here. The risk/reward ratio was obviously too high and I simply shouldn't have backed that much.

I was mentally devastated during this last week. Since then I can only attract losses, haven't had a single profitable day since then but this will change soon, very soon!

I'll start from here on with a bank of 735.23€ as the zero point.

Hope you enjoy this blog.